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Welcome to our blog!

Please check back here regularly for informative updates. We'll have a variety of topics ranging from what’s going on in the markets to wealth enhancing strategies that we can help our clients implement.

Monday, November 10, 2014

Jobs creation on both sides of the border helping move markets higher

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
Despite a report showing that US corporations hired fewer people than anticipated, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 continued their climb higher and made yet another all time high. Economists were looking for an increase of 235k jobs and the actual number came in at 214k. The unemployment rate edged down to 5.8% from 5.9%. The report marks the 56th consecutive month of private sector job growth. Payrolls have now exceeded by 200k+ for the 9th straight month.

The Canadian economy improved in October with 43,100 jobs being created vs est for a loss of 5,000. The unemployment rate came in at 6.5% vs estimates of 6.9%.  The Canadian dollar finished up on the day at 88.24 or 113.35 in reaction. The job numbers combined with the performance of Gold stocks helped the TSX finish the week on a very positive note, up 127 points.  

Friday, October 31, 2014

Japan surprises market with stimulus helping market end October on a high note

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
After a surprise stimulus move by the Bank of Japan, global markets around the world enjoyed a nice rally to close out the month.

The Dow Jones was up 195 points, S&P 500 up 23, and the TSX closed up 154.  After being down as much as 10% on the S&P 500 on October 15 and 13% for the TSX markets have stormed back and have recovered most of the losses although US stocks have clearly outperformed.

Energy companies led today in US with Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp both rising 2.4%. Very telling with the price of oil down all day.  Gold and Silver slid to the lowest level since 2010. Gold broke through the $1180 low to settle at $1171 meaning there could be more pain in store.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Markets on fire after short lived correction

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
Markets around the world continue to comeback after a correction that caused investors to fear that the multi-year rally was finally over.  Things have turned around in a hurry though and just a short time later it seems like the correction never happened. We are just one day before the conclusion of the FOMC meeting and US stocks tracked higher all day. DJIA finishing 187, S&P up 23, Nasdaq up 78 and Russell 2000 up the most with nearly a 3% move higher.

Consumer confidence was the big driver as the Conference Board’s index climbed to 94.5, the highest level since October 2007. Americans more excited about the prospects for jobs and the fact that gas is much cheaper and they have more money to spend. The S&P is now only 1.7% away from the previous peak of 2019 on Sept 19. 

      The TSX finished the day up 155 and closed right on the roof on increasing volume. The next obstacle for the TSX will be the 200 day ma which comes in at 14,687.  The TSX was down 13% on October 16th but is currently down only 6.8%.  


Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Market turns from mild correction to signs of Panic

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
Is this the big one? Or will this be another correction of the variety we have seen over the past few years?  Many have been expecting a 5-10% correction since mid-summer.  10% would equate to 1810 on the S&P 500.  It would not be surprising us to see the S&P 500 fall another 40-50 points which would take us to around that level.  What has been the surprise is the quickness of the decline which has been remarkable as complacency has given way to fear.  The TSX has been worse with a decline of over 10% already and many fear more is in store.

The good news is we don’t see this as a signal the bull market has ended.  Global economic growth, based on the reduced IMF forecast is down from 4.0% to 3.8% for 2015, but 3.8% is still the best pace we have seen since economies rebounded in 2010/2011.  China’s economy isn’t stopping (they just had one of their highest oil import months), India is getting better.  Oil at $81 dollars has a big positive impact on oil importing economies including the US, China, India, Europe (ok, not great for the TSX).  The US consumer has de-levered (household debt to disposable income of 114% in 2009 to 90% today), wages are starting to rise, unemployment is still falling.

So if you agree it’s a correction, not the beginning of a bear market, then what to do?  Corrections don’t stop at 10% necessarily (that would be too convenient).  There is certainly some value out there and some quality names that have been beaten down.  We don’t know when the correction will end, but there are some indicators that this selling may be getting tired.  Nonetheless, doing some buying now and potentially some later will be our approach.

When panic looms, the fundamentals go out and sentiment and technicals tends to rule.  Some of those factors are currently very at the bearish levels that have coincided with past market bottoms.

Thursday, October 02, 2014

Markets off to a rough start in October

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
It has been all doom and gloom over the last week highlighted by protests in Hong Kong and the first North American Ebola case.   The TSX has given back about half of its 2014 year to date gains and the S&P 500 has done just about the same.  That leaves many of the major indices at important technical levels, and further downside could signal real trouble for equity markets around the world.

With the American economy still improving and with rates still at all-time lows, it doesn't feel like this will be the end of the rally but nothing can be ruled out.  Look for the S&P 500 to stay well above the 1900 level or a much deeper correction could materialize.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Apple introduces new products and S&P 500 stalls at 2000

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
Apple's Tim cook introduced multiple long-rumoured products on Tuesday, including two new iPhones, a watch and a mobile payments system.  The news seems to have been priced into Apple stock as it has had little impact on its share price.  Apple has decided to follow in the footsteps of its competitors by releasing a 5.5 inch screen phone and a watch that will function as a platform for storing and displaying photos, maps and health and fitness information. 

This has definitely been one choppy week; markets have been up and down just about every day since the S&P 500 first hit the 2000 mark. Once we get through 2000 we can apparently set our sights on a new target as Morgan Stanley's strategy team came out with a bold call a few days ago predicting that the S&P 500 would hit 3,000 by the end of the decade.  Although it may seem unrealistic at first glance, it would only take a fraction of the returns we have seen over the last few years from now till 2020 to make their prediction a reality.

Thursday, September 04, 2014

Markets end August on a strong note and S&P 500 finally breaks through 2000

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
In a terrific bounce back month, most North American markets rallied to new highs. The TSX rose +1.9%, the S&P 500 gained +3.8% and the Nasdaq had an astounding month rising 4.8% led by Apple.  Of course the big development market wise was multiple record highs for the S&P 500 and its first close above the 2,000 mark. European markets were also positive despite the ongoing unrest in Ukraine, while most of Asia was rather flat.

It seems that Europe is now in the bad news is good news phase for the markets, as it raises hopes for further stimulus from the European Central Bank.  The ECB did not disappoint investor’s this morning when the European Central Bank surprised markets with stimulative measures including cuts in interest rates and the commencement of asset purchases.  This caused the Euro to tumble below the 1.30 mark for the first time in 2013, but sent European stocks significantly higher.

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Could recent developments have us talking about Tim Hortons, BCE and the Boston Celtics in the same sentence one day?

With the recent news that Burger King will pay $12.5 billion to acquire Tim Hortons, a Canadian institution; one has to wonder if this deal will bring an end to the popular U.S. strategy of tax inversions. It has been used quite frequently in the past by American corporations to reduce their corporate tax burden by relocating to jurisdictions with favourable tax laws.

Firstly, I think it is worth noting that compared to many recent deals, this one makes the most business sense as Burger King is looking for a way to grow their breakfast offerings; especifically coffee, and compete with the likes of McDonald’s and Dunkin Donuts. Both of these companies have recently initiated anti-Starbucks ad campaigns as they begin to realize the importance of the breakfast and coffee business to their bottom line. Those of us in Canada know how synonymous the “Timmy’s” name is with coffee.
That being said, this is primarily a tax-inversion strategy. The acquisition of a stable and growing business is secondary. However, with the substantial media coverage that this deal is generating, I cannot help but wonder if this will be the deal that pushes the U.S. Government to find a way to close this loophole and limit its use by major corporations.

If this were to happen it would be reminiscent of a number of North American corporations attempting to take advantage of a tax structure only to have the government change the rules.
Many of us in Canada will remember the Halloween Massacre of 2006 when Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced that income trusts would be taxed in a similar manner to corporations at a rate of 30%. The previous structure allowed corporations to flow their distributions to their unit holders on a pretax basis thus dramatically reducing their corporate taxes payable.

The new law saw valuations of many of these companies drop dramatically. The energy sector was perhaps the hardest hit, with estimated losses of $35 billion overnight.  Although the new rules were instituted to reduce a perceived loss of tax revenue, it was done in a rather dramatic fashion when it became apparent that a number of major Canadian corporations were looking to convert to income trusts to further reduce their tax liability. On October 11th,2006, a mere 20 days before Finance Minister Flaherty announced the changes, BCE Inc., one of Canada’s largest publicly traded companies, announced plans to convert from a corporation to an income trust. The forecasted loss for the government by allowing BCE and fellow telecom giant Telus to convert would have been in the neighborhood of $1.5 billion annually. There is no doubt that the threat of more companies converting forced the government to act swiftly and decisively to limit the potential tax loss.
Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) in the U.S. have a very similar story. MLPs in the U.S. started in quite the same way with the first MLP in 1981.  The goal was to distribute income in a pretax manner and thus dramatically reduce their tax burden. While a structure like this did, and does, continue to make sense for companies in the business of production, processing, and transportation of oil, natural gas, and coal (energy sector); a number of major corporations started to convert as well. Interestingly, the Boston Celtics, once a publicly traded company, even converted to an MLP during the height of its popularity.

In 1987, amid concerns of substantial losses in tax revenue, the U.S. government passed a law limiting the actions of MLPs. Primarily speaking, MLPs could no longer run an operating business. This effectively stopped the practice of converting to MLPs for tax savings. The U.S.  Internal Revenue Service did grandfather all current MLPs for 10 years and allowed them to manage their conversion back to traditional corporations (much like the Canadian government did for income trusts, but only over a 5 year period). Today the majority of MLPs are in the energy sector and have specific requirements that must be met in order to maintain their tax status.
As implausible as it may seem, there may come a day where we could be talking about Tim Horton’s, BCE, and the Boston Celtics in the same sentence.

The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Richardson GMP Limited or its affiliates. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author's judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The comments contained herein are general in nature and are not intended to be, nor should be construed to be, legal or tax advice to any particular individual. Accordingly, individuals should consult their own legal or tax advisors for advice with respect to the tax consequences to them, having regard to their own particular circumstances Richardson GMP Limited is a member of Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Richardson is a trade-mark of James Richardson & Sons Limited. GMP is a registered trade-mark of GMP Securities L.P. Both used under license by Richardson GMP Limited

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, August 25, 2014

S&P 500 takes aim at the 2000 mark

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
Following a short lived correction, markets have taken off over the past couple of weeks.  The S&P 500 is looking to take another shot at the 2000 level gaining 1.7% last week alone to finish at 1,988.  Previous attempts at breaking the 2000 level over the past couple months have failed which has resulted in minor corrections.  The Dow rose 2.0% last week and is now back above the 17,000 level and the NASDAQ climbed another 1.6%. The S&P/TSX Composite underperformed the other major North American indexes, but still returned 1.5% on the week and continues to outperform the US markets so far in 2014.

Surprisingly, energy shares continued to be in demand even as crude oil fell 3.8%, with the energy sector gaining 2.2% on the week.  Energy stocks will need to keep doing well if the TSX wants to continue to outperform but given the sharp decline in oil prices it would not be surprising to see energy stocks give back some of their gains and start to underperform at one point if crude prices don't rebound soon.

The big news over the weekend is that Burger King is in talks to purchase Tim Horton’s with the combined company to be headquartered in Canada.  Burger King would lower the effective corporate tax rate by keeping the new company north of the border.  This seems the biggest motivation behind the rumored deal.

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

After a small correction markets start to claw their way back

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
After a rough couple of weeks, North American markets finished last week on a strong note.  The TSX was virtually flat while the S&P 500 managed to rise 0.3%.  Bonds have been performing well and in many cases made new 52 week highs last week.  The bond rally and resulting lower yields have been partly responsible for causing concern among investors. 

The flight to fixed income which has caused yields to fall, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve indicated that rates may go up soon, is a potential warning sign that this equity market rally might be running out of steam and that the economy may not be as strong as many had thought.  The weaker equity markets and bond buying could also be due to all of the geopolitical tensions and could be a simple case of profit taking and investors heading to the sidelines until some of these issues are resolved.  Whatever the reason, a small market correction is healthy and necessary if the market is to continue making new highs in the coming weeks and months.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Markets rally on despite Geopolitical headwinds

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
Markets got a bit of a scare last week when a Malaysian Airlines passenger jet went down over Eastern Ukraine.  The scare appears to have been short lived as far as the markets are concerned and they have not only recovered, North American markets have set new highs since the incident.  Last week the TSX and the Dow each rallied another 0.9% while the S&P 500 moved up another 0.5%.
 
This week brings earnings from many of the big names.  In Canada Loblaws, Encana, Canadian National Railway, Potash, Teck Resources and others will be reporting.  Some of the big US names that will be reporting include Apple, Microsoft, Verizon, Boeing, Starbucks and Facebook.  This week’s earnings will most likely have a significant impact on whether the rally can keep on going or whether it is time for a breather.



Monday, July 14, 2014

Markets take a breather as European bank worries return


By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
Stock markets around the world took a breather as European bank worries caused investors to take profits.  The return of the dreaded PIIGS acronym is unsettling, especially after what happened in 2011.  Most of the worry is due to Portuguese Banco Espirito Santo having trouble making payments on its debt and so far most of the fear has been isolated to the PIIGS countries sending their markets lower and bond yields higher.  Flight to safety has caused German bond yields to do the exact opposite reaching record lows.
 
North American markets fell during the week but still managed to finish close to their all-time highs.  The TSX managed to stay above the 15,000 mark although energy names continued to sell off falling 2.8% on the week while materials were able to partially offset that, rallying 1.9% during the week due to increased demand for gold caused by the aforementioned European worries.  This week could be an important one with stock markets, gold and oil all hovering around important technical levels. 
 
The big news this week includes Wednesday's Bank of Canada rate announcement and earnings from various US blue chip names including IBM, Intel, Yahoo and JP Morgan just to name a few.  The Bank of Canada is likely to keep the overnight rate at 1% but investors will be on the look out for any change in language that could give clues as to what the next move could be.

Monday, July 07, 2014

Strong job numbers help the Dow crack the 17,000 mark


By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
Despite the Canada Day and Independence day shortened trading week, there was no shortage of good news for the markets highlighted by the greater than expected US employment numbers.  The US added almost 300k jobs in the month which helped the S&P 500 add to its record and close near the 2000 mark.  The Nasdaq also seems unstoppable this year and added another 2.4% to its already strong year to date performance.   The big news of course is that the Dow has managed to break the 17,000 level for the first time. 
 
The TSX also gained on the week setting brand new highs on 3 of the 4 trading days.  Despite the new highs energy stocks are starting to cool off a bit which will be something to keep an eye on.  They represent a large percentage of the TSX and will most likely need to perform well if the TSX hopes to outperform going forward.

Saturday, June 28, 2014

TSX moves into record territory

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
It's taken about 6 years, but at long last the TSX has rallied back to the 15,000 level. On a closing level basis it has broken the previous record of 15,073 set on June 18th, 2008 just before the global recession wiped out almost of half of the index's value.

Energy stocks have been the primary driver of Canadian stock outperformance thus far in 2014 and if this trend persists then even higher levels could be in store for the TSX. However, in the near term the market could be susceptible to a minor correction, especially the S&P 500 which continues to set new records and is quickly approaching the 2,000 level. 

Monday, June 16, 2014

S&P 500 could be on its way to 2000 and TSX rises to near-record levels

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
The S&P 500 continued its upward move and hit 1950 before taking a small breather in the latter half of the week.  It now has 2000 squarely in its sights, but that level could very well signal at least a brief pause if not a correction.  Long-term bull-markets frequently have one if not two points in time where the market gives back 1/3 to 2/3 of its gains.  Considering how far the S&P 500 has run, a correction could be pretty deep when the time comes and the 2000 level seems as good a level as any for that correction to begin.  On the other hand, this may be just the early stages of a rally that will last for many more years and the S&P could very well blow through 2000.  Considering the fact that the market has only returned approximately 6% including dividends since early 2008 (prior to the crash) and less than 3% since the year 2000, it’s a distinct possibility.
 
Here at home, the TSX has risen to 15,000 for the first time in a very long time, and sits just below record levels.  With oil prices surging, it could easily break through the 15,073 level early in the week.  It is hard to say where the TSX might be ultimately headed, but it could have a long way to go considering the fact the market is virtually flat over last 6+ years.

Friday, May 30, 2014

Third time's a charm for S&P 500

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
After two previous failed attempts at breaking the 1900 mark, the S&P 500 finally made it through on its third attempt and has continued to drift higher since.  The index seems destined to challenge the 2000 mark before the year is out, but it would not be surprising to see this 'big, round number' be a difficult level to surpass, and could possibly bring a period of sideways markets if not an outright correction.  Investors tend to be cautious when stocks, currencies and indices approach big, round numbers and it usually takes not only a lot of buying but repeated attempts to finally break through these psychologically important levels.

Canadian markets have cooled off a bit lately, and the market has been behaving like it's 2013. Whether or not this becomes a continuing trend remains to be seen.  The TSX has a big, round number of its own to contend with and if it wants to keep pace with the US markets it will need to break through the 15,000 level sometime in the near future.

Friday, May 16, 2014

S&P 500 reaches 1900 but quickly falls back

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
US markets made new highs but then sold off leaving many questioning whether a bigger correction could finally be in order.  Surprisingly though the market reversed course on Friday and finished strong.  Unfortunately Canadian Markets did not participate much in the rebound and finished the week with a slight loss.  Much of the volatile week can most likely be attributed to the 10 year US Treasury rate dipping below 2.50% for the first time in quite a while, which combined with some of the strong economic data has left analysts scratching their heads.  This has investor’s worried as a falling 10 Year rate generally points toward weaker expectations for the economy and for inflation and contradicts the economic data we have seen lately.

Perhaps this is just another head-fake and the S&P 500 will test 1900 once again in the very near future. Whichever way the market moves to start the week could be a strong indication of where we are headed next.

Friday, May 09, 2014

Sell in May and go away?

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
I am back from my vacation, and looking at the charts it appears I didn’t miss much, with the TSX being almost exactly where it was when I left.

May has historically been the start of a period of weaker stock market performance, and considering the run up in stock prices we have seen over the last few years now would be as good a time as any for May to once again signal the beginning of weaker markets. Equities have indeed started the month of May slow, slightly down for the most part.  However, at this point there hasn't been anything to indicate that a major sell-off is looming as gold has been flat even with the issues in Ukraine, and market volatility as measured by the VIX has also been low so it appears to be business as usual for the time being. Nevertheless, it does feel that the market is at least taking a breather which in the grand scheme of things is probably healthy. 

Here in Canada, energy related names have been hit hard over the past week and it remains to be seen whether this signals not only the end of the sector’s outperformance but perhaps even the end of Canada’s outperformance compared to US markets that we have been enjoying thus far in 2014.  Small corrections are generally healthy as they tend to attract new buyers which will help fuel the next rally, so as long as things don’t get out of hand Canadian markets could continue to outperform throughout the year.

Friday, April 25, 2014

Geopolitical strife overshadowing solid earnings


By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
Despite a week with some great earnings, such as Microsoft and Apple, markets weakened during the latter part of the week due to escalating tension in Ukraine.  The week started off well and the S&P looked poised to take a run at the 1900 level before the end of the month.  But Ukraine worries have most likely derailed any chance of that, and now we are faced with the last week of April and the beginning of the dreaded month of May.
 
In what has been a recurring theme thus far in 2014, Canadian markets have outperformed the US and have held on to the majority of their gains despite the negative headlines.  The rally in US equities may be far from over, but that doesn’t mean that Canadian equities won’t continue to outperform for the foreseeable future.
 
I am off to Brazil next week, vising Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.  As tempting as it may be to never come back, I will be returning in 2 weeks with my next blog entry.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Markets bounce back in holiday shortened week


By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
Markets have rebounded quite nicely following an ugly start to April that saw most markets fall anywhere from 2 – 4%.  The TSX has climbed back and then some, reaching a new post-2008 high of just over 14,500.  It may not be long before the TSX takes a run at 15,000 and new all-time highs.

On another note, thankfully it appears we were unaffected by the Heartbleed bug that has affected many Canadians. 

Enjoy the long weekend!

Friday, April 11, 2014

Markets cooling off but may only be temporary

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
Markets around the world have not fared well over the last week which has caused many to question whether this may be the start of something bigger.  Economic data has been less robust lately which has helped fuel speculation that a deep correction in the short term may very well be in the cards.  When I look at gold, the US dollar and even the VIX I do not see the warning signs that this could be the start of a big sell-off, at least not yet.  More likely than not it is just another healthy correction and the bull market we have been enjoying for the past several years is still alive and well.

Could we see a larger correction to the tune of 10% or even 15%?  It is certainly possible, and it would definitely be long overdue, but the more likely scenario would be a correction of another 1-3% followed by rally that sees the S&P 500 take another run at the 1900 mark before months end.  For patient investors comfortable with a bit of volatility, this correction may turn out to be a good buying opportunity.

Friday, April 04, 2014

S&P 500 takes a run at 1900

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®

After taking a breather last week, the S&P 500 continued moving upwards making new highs along the way. It got close to 1,900 at one point but quickly fell back down to the 1,880 level.  It feels like it’s only a matter of time before we break through 1900 and work our way towards 2,000.  The 2,000 mark might be a tough psychological hurdle and could be a level that ends up very hard to break. Investors tend to be scared of big round numbers and when it comes to the S&P 500 they don’t get much bigger or rounder than 2,000.  So it shouldn’t come as a surprise if we end up touching 2,000 later this year but aren’t able to break through it until 2015 if not later.

On the home front, the TSX keeps inching higher with its sights set on the 15,000 level.  There hasn’t been much to complain about lately as just about every sector besides gold has enjoyed nice gains over the past week.

Friday, March 28, 2014

Emerging markets soar while North America takes a breather

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®

Emerging markets rebounded strongly this week after experiencing a slow start to 2014 as investors seem to be less concerned with the Fed or with growth in China and have started to see opportunity in heavily oversold emerging market stocks.  Most emerging market indices have enjoyed gains between 5 and 10 percent over the past week alone.  In contrast, North American markets have continued to move sideways as investors have sought opportunities elsewhere.


It would not be a surprise to see the rest of 2014 be a good one for emerging markets as well as commodity driven markets such as Canada.  The US market may continue to perform well, but perhaps at a more moderate pace than what we have seen over the last 5 years.

Friday, March 21, 2014

Janet Yellen Spooks Markets

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®

In her debut as head of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen unnerved investors as she hinted at rising interest rates sooner than the market had been expecting.  Initially this sent markets into a tailspin but stocks have since recovered and the S&P 500 appears poised to end the week at yet another all-time high.  The same cannot be said for gold which has weakened substantially after the last few days, and may very well signal the end of the rally that began just before Christmas.  The Canadian dollar has also fallen below 90 cents since the news, and could be headed for more weakness in the near-term.

The stock market has proven to be resilient and has rallied in the face of just about every piece of bad news that’s been thrown at it.  The S&P 500 may very well attempt to test the 2000 mark before Summer hits, exactly three times the low it reached at the height of the financial crisis.

Friday, March 14, 2014

Markets starting to cool off as investor optimism starts to wane

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®

The rally in equity markets has cooled off, at least for the time being.  Usually a correction like this would be viewed as healthy thing after the rally we have enjoyed over the last few weeks, but with some of the less than stellar economic data we have seen combined with the ongoing issues in Crimea it feels like it may be awhile before the market gets back to the highs we saw last week.

Of course this 5 year bull market has surprised us time after time with its resilience, and this time may indeed be no different, but it feels like a significant correction could take place in the not too distant future.  Whether that is in 2014 or whether that is still a few years off remains to be seen.

Friday, March 07, 2014

US Stock Markets soar to new heights, but will it last?

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®

US stock markets have continued their ascent, reaching new highs on four consecutive trading sessions. The S&P looks poised to challenge the 1,900 level, almost 3x the level it reached at the height of the financial crisis in early 2009.  It now ranks as one of the top 6 bull markets in history in terms of length as well as duration.  Despite this amazing rally, it has a long way to go before matching the strongest bull market in history.  That honour goes to the bull market that started after the market crash in 1987 and ended with the burst of the dot-com bubble, a market that returned a whopping 582% and lasted over 12 years!

With the mixed bag of economic data we have been seeing combined with escalating geopolitical tensions, one has to wonder how much more room this market has to run.  It might not be time to go to the sidelines necessarily, but being in a well-diversified portfolio of blue chip names could partially shelter you from some of the larger losses that could be incurred if the market does happen to pull back.  We continue to prefer writing calls on our equity holdings as opposed to an outright buy and hold strategy at this point. 

Friday, February 28, 2014

US Stock markets reach new highs plus RRSP deadline fast approaching

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®

Stocks keep pushing forward, with all of the major US indices making new highs.  If the new highs can hold we could see the market continue to perform well over the next couple months. However, historically the month of May usually marks the beginning of a seasonal decline in equity markets.  Whether this will apply to 2014 or not remains to be seen, but considering the run up in equities we have had, it would not be a surprise to see markets cool off by then.

Congratulations to the men’s hockey team for bringing home the gold once again!  It was a highly successful Olympics for Team Canada.

Just in case anyone missed it, the deadline to contribute your RRSP for 2013 is Monday March 3rd.


Friday, February 21, 2014

Canada threatening top spot in the medal standings and new highs for the TSX

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®

Things couldn't be better for Canadians these days.  Canada just beat the United States in the Men’s semi-final and is threatening Norway for top spot in the medal standings which would be an amazing achievement and beyond anything thing most of us would have thought possible.  The men’s team will now try to take home gold just as the women did in their amazing comeback against the American’s.

The TSX has also done well, and looks like it could challenge its all-time high before the year is out if not sooner.  Amazingly enough, the TSX has been up every trading day in February except for the first trading session of the month.  Gold and oil stocks have lead the way but the strength has been across all sectors.  For the first time in a long time it feels like Canada is a great place to invest your money, although I cannot say the same for the Canadian dollar!





Friday, February 14, 2014

Market continues to rally with TSX poised to make new highs

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®

Stock markets around the world are continuing their rally and the threat of a deeper correction appears to be off the table. Weak job data on Friday got the ball rolling and Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen’s testimony this week sent markets even higher.  Resources have also been rallying especially gold which has been moving up at a torrid pace over the last few sessions.  The numerous calls for $1,000 gold appear to have been premature, with gold breaking through 1300 looking poised to move even higher.

It is a good time to be Canadian!  Not only has Canada had a great start to the Winter Olympics (which will hopefully culminate with double hockey Gold once again!), the TSX has continued to outperform US markets in 2014, and it would not be surprising to see this outperformance carry on throughout the year.  It is definitely welcome after years of lagging our big brothers to the south.


Friday, February 07, 2014

US jobs report disappoints, but the market continues its comeback

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®

The United States had a disappointing jobs report for the second consecutive month, although weather could be partially to blame.  The unemployment rate did drop to 6.6%, but a large percentage of the drop has been due to discouraged workers giving up on their job searches and leaving the labour market altogether.  Fortunately the market brushed off the news and continued its rebound from a two week sell-off which had started to cause worry among investors and some analysts.  The Canadian jobs report was much better, and was a sharp reversal from last month’s horrendous report and the Canadian dollar has started to make up at least some of the ground it has lost. 

We will see if this rebound continues in the coming weeks, or if we are just experiencing a short lived bounce amidst a longer and deeper correction.  It does feel like the correction is over and that the market will continue its upward trajectory. 


Friday, January 31, 2014

Fed decides to taper once again, but market has a different reaction this time around

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®

One day he may be remembered as the most important Fed Chairman ever and on his final day on the job Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve continued the tapering of its asset buying program by another 10 billion.  Given that they have cut $10 billion of purchases at back to back meetings, it is becoming increasingly apparent that they will end all asset purchases by the end of 2014.  

That realization combined with the mediocre data and earnings we have seen over the last month has sent markets lower, with the S&P down over 4% to start the year.  The good news is that the pullback at this point is still a healthy one, and the S&P rally that started 5 years ago is still intact.  If the S&P were to break below 1700 it might be cause for worry, but until that happens we are still clearly in the middle of a bull market. 

January was a bad month for most investors; perhaps February will bring a little relief as investors continue to digest earnings data and the potential positives of a future with less Fed intervention.

Friday, January 24, 2014

Is it time to get worried?

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®

Markets are having their worst week since the middle of 2012.  The DOW has fallen below 16,000 and the S&P is hovering around the 1,800 mark. Emerging market stocks and currencies are getting hammered. 

After an amazing 2013 it is not a surprise to see the market cool off, but to see it happen this early in the year comes as somewhat of a surprise, and may be a signal that even more pain is in store.  The good news for those of us invested domestically is that the Canadian markets have held on pretty well up until now.

A correction after the rally we have had is healthy and long overdue.  Let's just hope this isn't the start of a deeper sell-off and the end to the multi-year rally.


Friday, January 17, 2014

Could 2014 be Canada's time to shine?

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®

The last few years have been less than kind to Canadian’s investing domestically. 2013 wasn't a bad year at all, but watching the US markets take off like a runaway freight train has been a frustrating experience for many of us.  Could 2014 be different?

Although it is still early, Canadian markets have outperformed to start the year.  The TSX is up 2% year to date.  Compare that with the S&P 500 which is down 0.25% year to date and there is a little reason for optimism.  More importantly, the strength has been coming from resources with Potash and pretty much every gold stock leading the way.  The small cap index is up over almost 4% to start the year and there has even been some M&A activity, which could be very encouraging signs of things to come.

It might be a bit premature, but this could be the early makings of a 2014 which delivers outstanding returns for Canadian investors and new all-time highs for the TSX along with it.

Friday, January 10, 2014

Did the Fed act too soon?

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®

December job creation in the United States came in well below expectations prompting many to start second guessing the Federal Reserve’s decision in December to start tapering.   There is speculation that the Fed could halt their tapering, or even consider a return to stimulative measures which has caused gold to rally and the US dollar to take a hit against most of the major currencies.   The exception to that is, of course, the Canadian dollar, which is being sent even further down after a terrible jobs report.  Canada lost 45,900 jobs in December, which is almost equivalent to the United States losing half a million jobs in a month.  This is a horrible number, and the outlook for the Canadian dollar is looking dimmer by the minute.

The US stock market has had a lackluster start to 2014 but surprisingly enough the Canadian stock market has been an out-performer and is up almost 1% to start the year with resource stocks starting to show signs of life.


Friday, January 03, 2014

Happy New Year!

By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®

With a very memorable 2013 behind us, we now look forward to 2014 and what it has in store. Will QE finally be wound up? Will the US market continue to outperform or will it be the rest of the world’s turn to shine? Or is the party finally over and we will have sideways or even negative markets in 2014?

The year has started off relatively flat and experts are pretty divided, with many predicting a repeat of 2013 carrying the S&P to over 2000 while others are predicting a deep and long overdue correction in 2014. In fact we may see both of these things happen in what may turn out to be an eventful 2014.