By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
It's taken about 6 years, but at long last the TSX has rallied back to the 15,000 level. On a closing level basis it has broken the previous record of 15,073 set on June 18th, 2008 just before the global recession wiped out almost of half of the index's value.
Energy stocks have been the primary driver of Canadian stock outperformance thus far in 2014 and if this trend persists then even higher levels could be in store for the TSX. However, in the near term the market could be susceptible to a minor correction, especially the S&P 500 which continues to set new records and is quickly approaching the 2,000 level.
Saturday, June 28, 2014
Monday, June 16, 2014
S&P 500 could be on its way to 2000 and TSX rises to near-record levels
By Justin Turner CIM, DMS®, CFP®
The S&P 500 continued its upward move and hit 1950 before taking a small breather in the latter half of the week. It now has 2000 squarely in its sights, but that level could very well signal at least a brief pause if not a correction. Long-term bull-markets frequently have one if not two points in time where the market gives back 1/3 to 2/3 of its gains. Considering how far the S&P 500 has run, a correction could be pretty deep when the time comes and the 2000 level seems as good a level as any for that correction to begin. On the other hand, this may be just the early stages of a rally that will last for many more years and the S&P could very well blow through 2000. Considering the fact that the market has only returned approximately 6% including dividends since early 2008 (prior to the crash) and less than 3% since the year 2000, it’s a distinct possibility.
The S&P 500 continued its upward move and hit 1950 before taking a small breather in the latter half of the week. It now has 2000 squarely in its sights, but that level could very well signal at least a brief pause if not a correction. Long-term bull-markets frequently have one if not two points in time where the market gives back 1/3 to 2/3 of its gains. Considering how far the S&P 500 has run, a correction could be pretty deep when the time comes and the 2000 level seems as good a level as any for that correction to begin. On the other hand, this may be just the early stages of a rally that will last for many more years and the S&P could very well blow through 2000. Considering the fact that the market has only returned approximately 6% including dividends since early 2008 (prior to the crash) and less than 3% since the year 2000, it’s a distinct possibility.
Here at home, the TSX has risen to 15,000 for the first time in a very
long time, and sits just below record levels. With oil prices surging, it
could easily break through the 15,073 level early in the week. It is hard
to say where the TSX might be ultimately headed, but it could have a long way
to go considering the fact the market is virtually flat over last 6+ years.
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